Economist Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., believes that the feeble economy will get even weaker. Moreover, he recently offered his view about the S&P 500. Here’s an excerpt from the Edmonton Journal. Economist and author Gary Shilling, a longtime columnist for Forbes magazine, is also in the bearish camp. He sees [...]
Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That’s when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn’t even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation [...]
Until 1933, a dollar was defined as a certain amount of gold. Even the Fed’s notes were convertible into gold. Money was stable. From 1933 to 1971, the dollar was still at least partially an IOU for gold, because foreigners could collect gold—price-fixed by the government at $35 an ounce—from the Treasury in exchange for [...]
In the first five months of 2012, there were twenty times as many Google searches on “inflation” as there were on “deflation.” This is down from a ratio of fifty times in June 2008. If any theme has been overdone over the past six years, it is the theme of inevitable inflation if not hyperinflation. [...]
This article was originally published on July 12, 2012 in Comstock Partners Market Commentary. Long before it became headline news, we were talking about the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging,excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the “fiscal cliff”, the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and [...]
Research & Commentary
The Market Rally Is Based On Hope Rather Than Substance
Charles Minter & Martin WeinerIs the market rally since the low of November 16th signaling better times ahead? We don’t think so. It seems to us that Wall Street is automatically assuming that the fiscal cliff will be settled by year-end, that the economy will subsequently recover at a stronger pace and that the market is significantly undervalued. We [...]
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