This article was originally published on July 12, 2012 in Comstock Partners Market Commentary. Long before it became headline news, we were talking about the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging,excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the “fiscal cliff”, the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and [...]
This article was originally published on June 15, 2012 in Comstock Partners website. Deflation is a much more likely outcome than major inflation. We have long maintained that a debt bubble followed by a credit crisis leads to a deflationary recession or depression, and a major secular bear market. Nevertheless, a lot of smart analysts [...]
Originally published on December 10, 1999. Introduction The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of [...]
Is Our Long Term View of a U.S.Secular Bear Market Still Valid? We received a phone call over the weekend from a close friend and someone who reads our comments religiously. He had a question for us. He wanted to know if we were still in the secular bear market camp or have we thrown [...]
Originally published in Comstock Partners’ Market Commentary on July 7, 2005. We have been strong believers in the deflation theme since these comments began in February of 2000, and even before. We are attaching the chart showing the “Cycle of Deflation” at the end of this comment, so you might want to scroll down and [...]
Research & Commentary
The Market Rally Is Based On Hope Rather Than Substance
Charles Minter & Martin WeinerIs the market rally since the low of November 16th signaling better times ahead? We don’t think so. It seems to us that Wall Street is automatically assuming that the fiscal cliff will be settled by year-end, that the economy will subsequently recover at a stronger pace and that the market is significantly undervalued. We [...]
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