Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That’s when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn’t even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation [...]
Research & Commentary
Until 1933, a dollar was defined as a certain amount of gold. Even the Fed’s notes were convertible into gold. Money was stable. From 1933 to 1971, the dollar was still at least partially an IOU for gold, because foreigners could collect gold—price-fixed by the government at $35 an ounce—from the Treasury in exchange for [...]
This excerpt was originally published in Roger Bootle’s book, The Death of Inflation — Surviving & Thriving in the Zero Era, pages 15-16, London: Nicholas Brealy Publishing Ltd, 1996. I said above that one of the apparent advantages of a regime of steadily falling prices is that there could be greater stability of pay. In [...]
Originally published on December 10, 1999. Introduction The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of [...]
This essay was originally published in Hoisington Investment Management Quarterly Review and Outlook, Fourth Quarter 2002 Balance Sheet Strains Restrict Economic Growth Efforts to make debt more manageable in the private sector will limit the growth in real GDP to a 0-2% range in 2003. At the end of September 2002, U.S. private sector debt [...]
Research & Commentary
The Market Rally Is Based On Hope Rather Than Substance
Charles Minter & Martin WeinerIs the market rally since the low of November 16th signaling better times ahead? We don’t think so. It seems to us that Wall Street is automatically assuming that the fiscal cliff will be settled by year-end, that the economy will subsequently recover at a stronger pace and that the market is significantly undervalued. We [...]
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