Research & Commentary

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman The rapid pace of money supply growth in Hong Kong may have reached an exhaustion point. This could weigh on […]

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Australian debt has inflated enormously over the last few years but when will it deflate? We present an indicator that may help answer that question. Hamilton Bolton founded the Bank Credit Analyst research company (now known as BCA Research) in 1949. He and Ralph Elliott corresponded and shared similar views on how markets cycle. After […]

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In the Quantity Theory of Money section of our Deflation Basics Series, we learned how the level of prices in an economy are affected by the amount of money sloshing around. In this section, we will learn about how money is created in the first place. Money is created courtesy of a magic trick known […]

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The cost to hedge against the Consumer Price Index declining has dropped to a new low, indicating that markets expect prices to keep on rising. Financial innovation is a wonderful thing. The acceleration in the evolution of financial futures and options during the 1970s and 1980s undoubtedly helped to make hedging risk much easier and […]

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The Federal Reserve has been perplexed as to why consumer prices are not increasing at a faster rate, given their super-easy monetary policy of the last few years. Traditional economics tells us that an economy with full employment (which the US essentially has) should experience upward pressure on wages and, subsequently, consumer prices – the […]

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In the July issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter introduced the proper measure for inflation adjusting – that is, by money and credit – and he named it MAC. We now extend MAC into a measure of inflation and deflation – the Money and Credit Index – or MACI (pronounced MAC-ee). Turning to […]

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