Albert Edwards

Albert Edwards is well known as the originator of The Ice Age thesis some 15 years ago. He identified the wholly unsustainable nature of western central banks excessive lose monetary policies and how it was, in effect creating a Ponzi Credit scheme. In contrast to most economists, who by the time of 2006 firmly believed that Central Bankers had tamed the cycle and believed in The Great Moderation, Albert believed that previous ‘missed’ recessions would emerge in one large postponed event. He drew heavily on the under-utilized work on sector imbalances of the recently deceased Cambridge Economist Wynne Godley.

Albert is known as an extreme equity bear and has been underweight equities as an asset class in his model portfolio since the end of 1996 in favour of long government bonds. He foresaw an Ice Age where equities would replicate the experience of Japan though the 1990’s and de-rate both in absolute terms and relative to government bonds. He had a target of US 10 year yields falling below 2% for over a decade.

Albert current believes the US equity market has far further to decline on the basis of long term cyclically adjusted PE ratios such as the Shiller PE ratio and also Tobin’s Q ratio. He thinks the biggest deflationary risk is a China hard landing. Like in 2007, there is massive complacence and overconfidence that the “authorities” can achieve a soft-landing.

Albert currently works at French investment bank Societe Generale as a Global Strategist after previously doing the same at Dresdner Kleinwort for 20 years. He has previously worked at Bank America Investment Management and The Bank of England.

Deflation Research & Commentary by Deflation.com Staff

  • Why a Columnist Compares Illinois with Venezuela

    The details differ, but both Illinois and Venezuela are in a big financial mess. EWI’s July 2017 Financial Forecast noted: Last month, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast … discussed the financial crisis gripping the State of Illinois. The state is a financial basket case, with one online columnist comparing it to Venezuela. With the above […]

    Read More

  • Will Central Bankers Continue to See Lackluster Inflation Data?

    You’re probably aware that the Federal Reserve engaged in unprecedented stimulus efforts to combat the Great Recession (2007-2009) and jump-start the economy through buying mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. The May 2016 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said: No matter how hard they huff and puff, economists and central bankers just cannot get the data to comply […]

    Read More

  • A Stunning Setup That Will Make You Ponder the Prospects for Deflation

    There’s a stunning parallel between four charts of financial markets in 1929 and the same markets in 2017. See for yourself.     Click here to enter your email address to get your email updates and you’ll get a bonus report: What You Need to Know Now About Protecting Yourself from Deflation. It’s free >> ******** […]

    Read More