Albert Edwards

Albert Edwards is well known as the originator of The Ice Age thesis some 15 years ago. He identified the wholly unsustainable nature of western central banks excessive lose monetary policies and how it was, in effect creating a Ponzi Credit scheme. In contrast to most economists, who by the time of 2006 firmly believed that Central Bankers had tamed the cycle and believed in The Great Moderation, Albert believed that previous ‘missed’ recessions would emerge in one large postponed event. He drew heavily on the under-utilized work on sector imbalances of the recently deceased Cambridge Economist Wynne Godley.

Albert is known as an extreme equity bear and has been underweight equities as an asset class in his model portfolio since the end of 1996 in favour of long government bonds. He foresaw an Ice Age where equities would replicate the experience of Japan though the 1990’s and de-rate both in absolute terms and relative to government bonds. He had a target of US 10 year yields falling below 2% for over a decade.

Albert current believes the US equity market has far further to decline on the basis of long term cyclically adjusted PE ratios such as the Shiller PE ratio and also Tobin’s Q ratio. He thinks the biggest deflationary risk is a China hard landing. Like in 2007, there is massive complacence and overconfidence that the “authorities” can achieve a soft-landing.

Albert currently works at French investment bank Societe Generale as a Global Strategist after previously doing the same at Dresdner Kleinwort for 20 years. He has previously worked at Bank America Investment Management and The Bank of England.

Deflation Research & Commentary by Staff

  • A Stunning Setup That Will Make You Ponder the Prospects for Deflation

    There’s a stunning parallel between four charts of financial markets in 1929 and the same markets in 2017. See for yourself.     Click here to enter your email address to get your email updates and you’ll get a bonus report: What You Need to Know Now About Protecting Yourself from Deflation. It’s free >> ******** […]

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  • Student Loans: A Shock That Lies in Wait

    The one thing that all major deflationary periods have in common is a prior build-up of societal debt that becomes overwhelming. In 2016, the number of Americans defaulting on their student loans jumped. And borrowers who are counting on the government’s student loan “forgiveness” program might be in for a shock.   Click here to […]

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  • Another Deflationary Development: No New Bailout for This Italian Airline

    In April 2015, EWI’s European Financial Forecast discussed a developing trend in the debt markets after the Austrian government refused to cover €10.2 billion in bonds issued by Heta Asset Resolution: One big clue to the size of the oncoming debt deflation is the central bank’s ongoing policy shift away from bail-outs — where taxpayers […]

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