Gary Shilling

gary-shilling

Dr. Shilling is the President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. He received his bachelor’s degree in physics, magna cum laude, from Amherst College, where he was also elected to Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi. Earlier, as a high school senior, he ranked 12th in the nation in the Westinghouse Science Talent Search. Dr. Shilling earned his master’s degree and doctorate in economics at Stanford University. While on the West Coast, he served on the staffs of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Bank of America.

Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Dr. Shilling was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith at age 29, and served as the firm’s first chief economist. Prior to Merrill Lynch, he was with Standard Oil Co. (N.J.) (now Exxon), where he was in charge of U.S. and Canadian economic analysis and forecasting.

A frequent contributor to the financial press, he is a regular columnist for Forbes magazine and his articles appear in other leading financial publications. He is a member of The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Japan Economic Journal) Board of Economists. He appears frequently on radio and television business shows. Recognized as an effective and dynamic speaker, he often addresses national and international meetings of various business groups, including the Young Presidents Organization.

Dr. Shilling has published numerous articles on the business outlook and techniques of economic analysis and forecasting, and he serves as Associate Editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association of Business Economics. His first book, Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?, was published by McGraw-Hill in early 1983. His fourth book, Deflation: Why it’s coming, whether it’s good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business and personal affairs, was published in June 1998 and has been translated in China and Korea. In 1999, McGraw-Hill published Deflation: How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, which was translated for readers in China. In late 2010, John Wiley & Sons published The Age of Deleveraging: Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation. He is also the creator of The Deflation Game, a board game that illustrates and reinforces his long-term forecast that deflation is a greater threat than a return to high inflation.

Dr. Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters (Probus Publishing, 1995).

Dr. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. In the spring of 1969, he was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year. In 1973, he stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was entering a massive inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the 1930s. In the late 1970s, when most thought that raging inflation would last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious financial and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring tangible assets to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.

Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Dr. Shilling as Wall Street’s top economist. Futures magazine also ranked him the country’s number one Commodity Trading Advisor. And in 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett.

Dr. Shilling is on the Board of Directors of the American Productivity and Quality Center and the Episcopal Preaching Foundation, Inc., of which he is Chairman; an Advisory Director of Austin Trust Company; and former Chairman of the New Jersey State Revenue Forecasting Advisory Commission. He is a former Director of the American Republic Life Insurance Co. of N.Y., the Henry H. Kessler Foundation, Inc., Aim Packaging and Palm Harbor Homes; a former Chairman and Trustee of the New Jersey Shakespeare Festival; a former director of National Life Insurance Co. (Vermont); a former Trustee of Bates College; and a former Trustee and the Treasurer of the General Theological Seminary (Episcopal). Dr. Shilling was a member of the National Commission on Jobs and Small Business. He also was an informal economic advisor to former President George H. W. Bush and an Executive-in-Residence at the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College. He has testified before various Congressional committees, including the Joint Economic Committee and the House Committee on Banking. He is also an avid beekeeper.

Deflation Research & Commentary by Gary Shilling

  • Seven Varieties of Deflation

    Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty.  That’s when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn’t even offsetting private sector weakness.  Deflation […]

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  • Gary Shilling’s Key Deflation Research & Commentary

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    In 1998, Gary Shilling wrote Deflation: Why it’s coming, whether it’s good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business and personal affairs (Lakeview Publishing Co.). The following year, he wrote Deflation: How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation (McGraw-Hill). In both books, he made the case for chronic […]

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Books & Subscription Services by Gary Shilling