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ECB’s Chief Economist: “Deflationary Risks Have Disappeared”

Originally published by European Central Bank on October 2, 2017 Read the original article.

In an Oct. 2 speech in London, Peter Praet, the chief economist for the European Central Bank, said:

Deflationary risks have disappeared and some measures of underlying inflation have ticked up over recent months.

You can read the entire content of the speech from the ECB’s website:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/ecb.sp171002.en.html

EWI’s European Financial Forecast is not surprised by the uptick in “some measures of underlying inflation” across the Continent, given that the stock market leads the economy.

This is from the September 2017 issue of the publication:

Economic fundamentals continue to play catch-up with stock markets as usual. In France, for instance, better-than-expected manufacturing pushed the economy into its strongest period of continuous growth since 2011. Meanwhile, the German economy extended its growth spurt, expanding 0.5% from April to June 2017; the overall European economy grew at 0.6% over the same period, largely in line with predictions. Where there were surprises, they largely came to the upside. “Perhaps the most eye-catching beat came from the Czech Republic,” said the Financial Times, noting the country’s 4.5% annual growth. (FT, 8/16/17) Following suit, Hungary’s economy grew at 3.2% annually; the Polish economy clocked in with 3.5% growth; and Romania’s economy led the group, expanding at nearly 6% year over year. If history serves, the economic fundamentals will continue to improve until sometime after the top tick in stocks.

With that last sentence in mind, know that the September 2017 European Financial Forecast also says

… many long-term wave patterns [are] verging on a bearish resolution.

So, now is the time to prepare for that “bearish resolution.”

Put another way, learn all you can about deflation before the onset of what EWI expects to be a historic contraction in the amount of money and credit in the global financial system.

You can get our insights into deflation by accessing the FREE eBook, What You Need to Know NOW About Protecting Yourself from Deflation.

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