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How Chinese Soccer Relates to Deflation

Signs of a global deflationary trend can be found where you might not think to look.

For example, EWI’s August Financial Forecast reviews Chinese soccer.

However, the publication starts with mentions of Ireland, South America and Saudi Arabia:

In various parts of the world, the trend toward economic deterioration and falling consumer prices is already underway. Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter of this year compared to the first quarter in 2016, and in June, prices fell 0.4% from June 2016; it was the sixth straight month of falling consumer prices. That same month, Ireland, Chile and Brazil also saw year-over-year consumer price declines of 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.23%, respectively. These economies may not necessarily be global powerhouses, but the Financial Times notes that the world’s largest economies are in similar shape: “The U.S., Europe and Japan are largely devoid of pricing power.” Every sector of U.S. consumer prices in Morningstar’s latest analysis came in below expectations, except healthcare and housing. “Everything else is seeing price increases of 1% or less. Car prices are falling (both new and used), food prices are down again, and the price of almost any physical good is still falling. Even some service categories are showing sustained [price] deflation. This seems to indicate something deeper than special factors at work.”

Until recently, the Financial Times says China was “the last best hope for the global reflation trade.” But last month and in several prior issues, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast argued that China is on the cusp of a deflationary credit crisis. That potential intensified in July, as ESPN reported that even Chinese soccer teams are dangerously overleveraged. On Tuesday, the Chinese Football Association (CFA) said 13 teams in China’s top professional league face expulsion if they cannot pay down outstanding debts. At this point, the “troubling similarities with Japan, circa 1990” are so glaring that analysts are starting to voice concern. In a July research report, for instance, Nomura Securities stated, “The world’s second largest economy is flashing signs of vulnerability.” Citing “large credit and real property gaps,” Nomura concludes that the “contagion to the rest of Asia could be substantial.”

Get more insights into the developing deflationary trend by reviewing the FREE, 11-page eBook, “What You Need to Know NOW to Protect Yourself from Deflation.”

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