But EWI's November European Financial Forecast says data from the European Union's statistics office suggests just the opposite.
In other words, the U.S. may be set to follow Europe.
Eight European countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain) … are now mired in outright deflation and four more countries (Cyprus, Lithuania, Portugal and Sweden) … show 0% price growth over the past year. Meanwhile, none of the 28 countries that make up the European Union show inflation rates above the ECB’s 2% target.
Record-setting ETF outflows is another potent sign that Europe is playing a lead role in the latest malaise. Over the past three months, investors yanked nearly $2 billion from the Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ETF, the most ever according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF lost $293 million in the third quarter (also a record), and, at $50 million, the ishares MSCI Spain Capped ETF saw its first quarterly drawdown in more than two years. Even Germany’s equivalent ETF just witnessed its third consecutive quarterly outflow.
In August and September 2014, we discussed investors’ “waning penchant for risk” as they abandoned several high profile European IPOs. Investors are now clearly acting on those conservative impulses, and their swift exit from the ETF market represents the start of a long period of risk aversion...
Europe seems to be far ahead of everyone else in one final area: economic contraction.
The November European Financial Forecast also says that Europe is headed for "a cash crunch that almost no living person has ever seen."